Ukrainian foreign minister warns against falling for claims that Russia is winning war

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha has called on external observers of the Russia-Ukraine war not to fall for claims that "Russia is winning", as the real situation gives no grounds for such conclusions.

Source: European Pravda, citing Sybiha on X

Details: Sybiha pointed out that the situation on the front lines has been and remains difficult, and that Russia’s forces do indeed outnumber Ukraine’s. However, Russia has failed to break through the front or achieve any strategic success.

Quote from Sybiha: "The assumption that Russia is winning the war is incorrect. It is based on a common pattern among foreign analysts of underestimating Ukraine and overestimating Russia. This pattern has been proven wrong many times before, but people keep falling into the same trap."

Sybiha noted that Russia’s winter offensives have mostly lost steam and came at a heavy cost, so much so that Moscow was forced to request military assistance from North Korea, while Ukraine has managed to stabilise the front line and regain a small amount of territory, particularly around Pokrovsk.

He included a reminder that the Kremlin had aimed to drive Ukrainian forces out of Russia’s Kursk Oblast within a few months, but those efforts have now dragged on for nine months, and that at the current pace of Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast, it would take Moscow many years to fully occupy the oblast.

"With the current developments in mind, no one should lose sight of the bigger picture, which demonstrates that Russia's full-scale invasion was a complete disaster. It began as a blitzkrieg, with the goal of destroying Ukraine and toppling its leadership in a matter of days. Over three years later, Russia has lost over 950,000 soldiers killed or wounded in action, but it has not captured a single additional regional centre in Ukraine since the 2022 invasion," Sybiha said, pointing out that the only additional oblast centre that Russia did take was Kherson, which Ukraine liberated in 2022 alongside over half of the territories occupied after 24 February.

The minister added that Ukraine has increased its defence production sixfold over the past three years and is now independently covering about 40% of its needs and producing 95% of the drones used at the front. Drones are responsible for about two-thirds of all Russian targets hit.

"Drones [...] are responsible for approximately 77,000 destroyed Russian targets on the front lines in March 2025 alone. This figure is 10% higher than in February, and Ukraine's drone capacity is increasing by the week," Sybiha noted.

"Ukraine wants peace more than anyone else in the world. We never wanted this war... What we require is pressure on Russia and a clear strengthening of Ukraine, which will deprive Moscow of any illusions that it can turn the tide in its favour," he concluded.

Background:

• Over the weekend, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the coming week will be "critically important" for the US in terms of deciding whether to continue its efforts to stop the war between Russia and Ukraine.
• He also noted that Trump is in no rush to tighten sanctions against Russia, as diplomatic efforts have not yet been exhausted.

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