European defence commissioner lists five mistakes West risks making in Russo-Ukrainian war

Andrius Kubilius, European Commissioner for Defence and Space, has listed five mistakes that Western countries risk repeating in the Russo-Ukrainian war, citing lessons from World War II.

Source: Kubilius at the Kyiv Security Forum on 8 May

Details: Kubilius named insufficient aid to Ukraine as the first mistake. He noted that over the past three years, the EU and the US have provided around €40 billion annually, in roughly equal proportions – significant figures, but less than 0.1% of their GDP and less than they spend on their own defence needs.

Kubilius called this an illogical approach in a situation where Ukraine, defending itself, is protecting other Western countries from the same enemy.

He called the second mistake the inability of "somebody" to clearly distinguish between the aggressor and the victim in this war, and the third mistake the hope for good relations with the aggressor Putin after the Russo-Ukrainian war subsides.

Quote: "NATO and all of us, we consider Russia the biggest threat to European security. And NATO plans to radically ramp up preparedness to defend and to deter Russian aggression. It is impossible to plan to be friendly with the biggest threat and to demand bigger defence spending in order to deter the biggest threat."

More details: Kubilius hinted at US President Donald Trump in his speech. 

"Implementation of the promises of friendship with aggressor Putin will embolden Putin to continue his internal and external aggressive policies, will bring confusion to the whole Western world of democracies, and again, will encourage aggressiveness by other authoritarian regimes," he added.

He called the fourth mistake the recognition of the occupation of Crimea and reiterated that it was the betrayal of Czechoslovakia in 1938 that opened the gates for further aggression by Hitler's Germany in Europe.

"History teaches clear lessons about leadership. In the critical moments, leaders can play the role of Chamberlain or the role of Churchill, Roosevelt, or Reagan. [...] To demand that Ukraine give part of its territory to aggressor Putin is a simple and tragic repetition of the historic mistake of Chamberlain," Kubilius stressed. 

Kubilius named the fifth potential mistake as denying Ukraine the opportunity to join NATO.

"Russia demands no NATO for Ukraine not because they are afraid of NATO offense against Russia using territory of Ukraine, but because they are afraid that NATO will defend Ukraine against next Russian aggression," he noted.

Background:

• Also on 8 May, the foreign ministers of the Baltic states, Poland, Czechia, Moldova and Ukraine published a joint statement explaining, based on the lessons of World War II, which scenarios for ending the Russo-Ukrainian war are dangerous and unacceptable.
• UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer warned that Russia's invasion of Ukraine shows that World War II is not "just history".

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