NATO considers encirclement of Sumy unrealistic: Russia is suffering significant losses there

NATO intelligence has confirmed the continued advance of Russian forces, including in Sumy Oblast, although Russia is suffering devastating losses.

Source: a senior Alliance official speaking to journalists at the NATO summit on condition of anonymity, as reported by European Pravda

Details: The Alliance official, based on intelligence from allied countries, confirmed the Ukrainian Armed Forces' estimates regarding Russian combat losses. The official stated that the threshold of one million Russian casualties had been crossed, with approximately 250,000 of those being deaths.

They said Russian losses had recently reached very high levels, averaging around 1,300 people per day, and linked this to Russia's tactics, which rely heavily on assaults resulting in a significant percentage of fatalities, including in Sumy Oblast.

Commenting on the situation in Sumy Oblast, the senior Alliance official explained that Russia is trying to create a buffer zone following the Kursk operation carried out by Ukrainian troops. While acknowledging that Russia has made some tactical advances, it was noted that these attacks are extremely exhausting for Russian forces. The official also added that the encirclement of the city of Sumy does not appear likely or possible in the near future.

UPDATED: Later, talking about expectations for the coming months, the official mentioned that Russia is expected to try to bypass Sumy. They said there would likely be attempts to expand the line of contact to the north and northeast of the city, as Russia seeks to establish a theatre of operations for a potential assault. However, the official pointed out that previous attempts had been unsuccessful.

The NATO official also observed that, although Russia was continuing to make gradual progress in Sumy Oblast and other areas of Ukraine's east, the line of contact had not significantly changed over the past two months.

They added that NATO has confirmed that Ukraine is simultaneously advancing near the Russian village of Tyotkino in Kursk Oblast, and believed this development is holding back the Russian offensive and demonstrating that both sides are achieving tactical gains.

Background: 

• In early June, European Pravda also reported that NATO has not observed any signs of preparations for a major Russian offensive on Sumy or Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.
• Russia has intensified its attacks on Sumy Oblast following a deadly strike on the city of Sumy that caused outrage among Western countries.

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